Peace through victory - the American way.

Thursday, November 11, 2004

All about the morals or all about the forward strategy of freedom?

Much has been made since the election about the importance of moral issues to Bush voters. The analysis is based on the exit poll that shows 22 percent of voters identified moral values as the most important issue in the election.

Of the 7 choices given to voters in the exit poll moral values received the most votes. It is significant that 80 percent of these moral values voters voted for Bush and 18 percent voted for Kerry. However, a closer look at the exit poll suggests that national security was the most important issue to more voters and the relationship between Iraq and the war on terrorism was decisive.

National security was not listed as a single issue in the exit poll. Instead, the poll listed Iraq and Terrorism as separate issues. Nineteen (19) percent of voters chose terrorism as most important and 15 percent chose Iraq. Thus, 34 percent of voters chose national security issues as most important in the election.

Looking within these numbers 86 percent of the terrorism voters went to Bush while only 26 percent of the Iraq voters went to Bush. These numbers suggest that Iraq voters are concerned about the Bush administration's handling of the war there whereas terrorism voters are satisfied with the Bush administration's handling of the war against terrorism. The Iraq numbers reflect significant dissatisfaction with Bush's performance in Iraq. This is borne out by another question which shows 52 percent of the voters think things are going badly for the US in Iraq and of those voters only 17 percent went for Bush.

Yet this dissatisfaction with performance does not appear to be determinative. Another number suggests what was determinative among voters concerned over national security. A constant mantra of Democrats in this election was that Iraq is a distraction from the war on terrorism. This Democratic position turned out to be fatal to their chances for power since it placed them in opposition to what most American voters believe. When asked whether the Iraq war is part of the war on terrorism a strong majority, 55 percent, said it is. Despite voters' unease with the conduct of the Iraq war, Bush took 81 percent of "Iraq is part of the war on terrorism" vote while Kerry took 88 percent of the vote of people who think the Iraq was is a distraction.

So, were voters just stupid? Everybody knows that Iraq had no links to Al Qaeda or to 9/11 and voters themselves believe things are going badly in Iraq, yet those same voters put Bush back into office. With respect to the first point, Iraq's relationship, or not, to Al Qaeda or 9/11 is not what makes the war there part of the war on terrorism. Instead, Bush voters recognize that overthrowing fascist regimes is a good thing, and where it can be done, it should be done. And in this case, overthrowing fascist regimes is part of a "root causes" approach to fighting terrorism. Blue county voters can't seem to comprehend this, but Bush recognized this long ago, and red county voters are on the same page as Bush on this. This is why red county voters gave their vote to Bush; they understand that the Iraqi liberation is part of the war against terrorism, and why should they give their vote to a candidate and a party who don't embrace this strategy.

Moreover, we now have some evidence to back up the strategy of overthrowing dictatorships in order to fight terrorism. A Harvard study shows that terrorism is reduced in countries that are free.

Let the liberation continue.


Wednesday, November 03, 2004

This is what a mandate looks like

The last four years that the Democrats have spent lying that Bush stole the election in Florida and ginning up hatred against the president has done as much to divide this country as anything Bush has done. It's time for the Democrats to stop whining that Bush is a divider not a uniter and start thinking about their own role in widening the political divide and what they intend to do to bridge the gap. And now that Bush has strongly won re-election let's hear no more talk that his presidency is illegitimate.

Here's the evidence of the mandate:

George Bush: 51 percent, 59.1 million votes, 274 electoral votes and counting.
John Kerry: 48 percent, 55.5 million votes, 252 electoral votes and stalled.

The Senate:

55 Republican
44 Democratic
1 "Independent"

The House:

231 Republican
200 Democratic
1 "Independent"
3 undecided

Click the link for the county by county results.

Besides the mandate, the map demonstrates something else. This is a center-right country not a center-left country. Red counties dominate in every state but Vermont, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Hawaii. Even in California the blue counties hug the Pacific Coast and red counties fill out the rest of the state. New York, surprisingly, is almost entirely red.

Let's also hear no more talk about the revenge of the Confederacy. The country is red in the South, that's certain, but many parts of the Union are red, and the Midwestern, the Plains, and the Mountain states are red also. Although our country's political capital (D.C.) and its spiritual capital (New York) are in the original 13 colonies, the Empire -- those colonies -- is no longer in charge. The electoral power in our country now resides in the former territories.

Exit polling shows the center-right tilt of this country.

The partisan split among voters this year was 37 percent each for Republicans and Democrats and 26 percent for independents, which shows an apparently evenly divided country. However, the ideological split among voters was 21 percent liberals, 34 percent conservatives and 45 percent moderates.

Moderates are often thought of as left-leaning rather than right-leaning. The term itself suggests a kind of moderation of the extremism by which the right is defined. The vote split among moderates supports this view as they voted 45 percent for Bush and 55 percent for Kerry. This suggests that moderates tend to lean left.

The center-right nature of our country is revealed when the ideological balance is calculated based on the moderates' votes for each candidate. If a vote for Bush is viewed as right leaning moderatism and a vote for Kerry is viewed as left leaning moderatism then right leaning moderates are about 20 percent of the electorate and left leaning moderates are about 24 percent of the electorate. Adding these totals to the totals for self-described conservatives (34) and liberals (21) results in the following breakdown:

Right wing and right leaning voters: 54 percent
Left wing and left leaning voters: 45 percent

Further evidence of this center-right lean is found by looking at the votes to protect the traditional American definition of marriage. The marriage propositions passed in every state they were on the ballot. Even in the two blue states, Oregon and Michigan, the propositions passed. Here's a comparison of the vote percentages of Bush's victory and the Yes vote to pass the marriage proposition in each state:

State Bush Vote Yes Vote
Arkansas 54 75
Georgia 59 76
Kentucky 60 75
Michigan 48 59
Mississippi 60 86
Montana 59 67
North Dakota 63 73
Ohio 51 62
Oklahoma 66 76
Oregon 48 57
Utah 71 66

While watching cable news shows this evening Mister Americano was struck by the advice of the left wing commentators (Katrina, Ron Boy, for instance) that the Democrats should tack left. Mister Americano hopes the Democrats take their advice. The political realingment in favor of Republicans will steamroll on.


Is that all there is?

Voters in the US have spent this entire election season mentally looking over their shoulders for an Al Qaeda attack ala the Madrid bombing in Spain. Last week Al Qaeda struck and it turned out to be an impotent blow. Instead of attacking the US, Al Qaeda delivered a video tape to Al Jazeera in which Osama threatened the US to behave or else.

The video certainly was professionally done and Osama looked pretty healthy, but Mister America got to ask. So what? Is that it? This is their best shot? Three years after 9/11 all they can do is put together a video taped warning.

What this tells Mister Americano is that the Bush strategy against the Islamist fascists is a good one. Take out Afghanistan and destroy Al Qaeda's base. Divert the Islamists from the American homeland by ovethrowing Saddam and creating a battlefield over there to attract their attacks. Keep moving forward with democratization in both countries to start to change the status quo in the Islamic region.